09UTC: Cyclone POLA(16P) category 1 US, weakening and becoming extratropical

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REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 27.5S 177.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (POLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 585 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY-DECAYING SYSTEM WITH LIMITED DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT DUE TO MODERATE TO
STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). A 010546Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED CONSERVATIVELY AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW. TC
16P IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST BUT IS FORECAST
TO RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). AFTER TAU 12, TC POLA WILL ACCELERATE
EASTWARD WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 36 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND
APPROACHES THE JET. TC 16P IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY DUE TO
INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SST (24-25C). THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS JTWC TRACK FORECASTS, THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE PRIMARY MODEL FORECAST GROUPING. DUE TO INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 12, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.//
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