0351UTC
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 177.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 259 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A
LOW-LEVEL MICROWAVE EYE EVIDENT IN 270618Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGERY. THE
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND
AUTOMATED SATELLITE INTENSITY CONSENSUS ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE
REPORTING AGENCIES. TC 16P HAS STEADILY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS UNDER THE FAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A
VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS A DEVELOPING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND TURNS EASTWARD. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE AND TC 16P PASSES OVER WARM WATER. AFTER TAU 24, INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER SHOULD RESULT IN
STEADY WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72 AS IT ENCOUNTERS AND MERGES WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, BUT DIVERGES
THEREAFTER DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH EVENTUAL INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE CYCLONE AND MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK
FORECAST LIES SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST, IN
LINE WITH THE CURRENT MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. BASED ON NOTED MODEL
FORECAST CHARACTERISTICS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
TRACK FORECAST THROUGH TAU 48, AND LOWER CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.//
NNNN
270900Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 177.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 259 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A
LOW-LEVEL MICROWAVE EYE EVIDENT IN 270618Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGERY. THE
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND
AUTOMATED SATELLITE INTENSITY CONSENSUS ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE
REPORTING AGENCIES. TC 16P HAS STEADILY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS UNDER THE FAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A
VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS A DEVELOPING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND TURNS EASTWARD. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE AND TC 16P PASSES OVER WARM WATER. AFTER TAU 24, INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER SHOULD RESULT IN
STEADY WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72 AS IT ENCOUNTERS AND MERGES WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, BUT DIVERGES
THEREAFTER DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH EVENTUAL INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE CYCLONE AND MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK
FORECAST LIES SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST, IN
LINE WITH THE CURRENT MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. BASED ON NOTED MODEL
FORECAST CHARACTERISTICS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
TRACK FORECAST THROUGH TAU 48, AND LOWER CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.//
NNNN
08UTC
