06W(KHANUN) forecast to remain at Typhoon intensity next 72h// 05E(DORA) forecast to peak at CAT 4 US by 24h//0215utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS TY 06W(KHANUN).

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED 20NM EYE AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES IN ALL QUADRANTS. AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN, A SLIGHT TROCHOIDAL WOBBLE IS ONCE AGAIN EVIDENT. A RECENT 020830Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A TIGHT INNER EYEWALL WITH A PRONOUNCED, ROUGHLY 90NM MOAT, BEYOND WHICH IS THE SECONDARY EYEWALL. THIS RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY ALONG WITH INCREASING MICROWAVE PROBABILITY OF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (M-PERC) VALUES, INDICATE AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) IS LIKELY UNDERWAY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EIR AND SSMIS IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A NEARLY COMPLETE CONSENSUS AMONGST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY FIXES THAT REFLECT PERSISTENT INTENSITY AND EVEN SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. THIS STAND IN STARK CONTRAST TO A RECENT 020859Z SMAP PARTIAL PASS AND 020945Z SAR PASS WHICH BOTH SHOWED A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85-91 KTS. BASED ON THIS DISSONANCE, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MEDIUM.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 06W (KHANUN) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DURING THAT TIME, THE ONGOING ERC WILL INDUCE LIMITED SHORT TERM WEAKENING THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BE EXACERBATED BY UPWELLING OF COOLER WATERS BENEATH 06W. THIS UPWELLING TAKES PLACE NEAR TAU 24, AS THE STR OVER THE YELLOW SEA BEGINS TO SHIFT WESTWARD AND BLOCKS ANY FURTHER MOVEMENT TOWARDS MAINLAND CHINA. AS TRACK SPEEDS GRIND TO A HALT, UPWELLING BEGINS TO QUICKLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 36, 06W IS FORECAST TO SHARPLY TURN GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD EVENTUALLY PICKING UP SPEED WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE WEAKENED TO AROUND 65KTS AS IT ONCE AGAIN PASSES KADENA AB. BEYOND TAU 100, HAS SEEN SOME OF THE GREATEST RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY, THANKS IN PART TO RIDGING, OR LACK THEREOF, THAT DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. FOR THE TIME BEING, THE PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL GUIDANCE BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE, INDICATES A PERSISTENT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY COURSE FOLLOWING TAU 36 AND THROUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NVGM AND HWRF, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 WITH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING A SLOW APPROACH TO 124E BEFORE SHARPLY TURNING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. NVGM AND HWRF EXECUTE THEIR TURNS SOONER AND MORE DRAMATICALLY, EVENTUALLY BEING JOINED BY COAMPS-TC (NVGM AND GFS), THESE MEMBERS ALL PASS WITHIN 15-40NM OF KADENA AB. THE REMAINING MODEL GUIDANCE MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST MAINTAINING A GREATER CPA TO KADENA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JGSM WHICH TARGETS SASEBO, ALL OTHER MEMBERS CONTINUE AN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY HEADING FOLLOWING TAU 36 AND THROUGH TAU 120. FOR ALL OF THESE REASONS THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED INITIALLY WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS INDICATING SLIGHT WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 24 AND MORE DRAMATIC WEAKENING THEREAFTER, WITH MINIMAL DEVIATION FROM THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FOR THIS REASON THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.