06UTC: South Pacific: Invest 95P: medium chances of development in 24H, and remnants of OMA(15P): subtropical system

INVEST 95P
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 24, 2019:
Location: 10.8°S 174.5°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt ( 45km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb

      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.5S 174.5W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5S 174.5W, APPROXIMATELY 360
NM NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 232116Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOW A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION. A 232117Z
ASCAT-B PASS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS TO
THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE, BUT
WEAKER WINDS AND TROUGHING TO THE SOUTH. THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY TO WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH INTO AN AREA OF STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND LOWER VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

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ex TC OMA(15P), subtropical.

As of 06:00 UTC Feb 24, 2019:
Location: 25.6°S 164.0°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 mb

      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 15P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
26.4S 163.5W, APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW
CALEDONIA. THIS SYSTEM IS ASSESSED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS
LOCATED POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, UNDER A DEEP SUBTROPICAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH MODERATE BAROCLINICITY. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 240325Z AMSR2 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION THAT IS FULLY
EXPOSED WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION EXHIBITING A WEAK FRONTAL
APPEARANCE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN
A LARGE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WITH COLD AIR ADVECTING OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. A PARTIAL 232152Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 40-45 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION WITH A RADIUS OF
MAXIMUM WINDS OF 100 NM, TYPICAL OF SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES. THE SYSTEM
IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW
TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND COOL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (24-25 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EQUATORWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT
WEAKENS AND CONTINUES TO ELONGATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 40 TO 45 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau.