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06UTC: South Indian: Invest 97S is now under watch


Medium chance of becoming a TC within 24hours


INVEST 97S
As of 06:00 UTC Apr 03, 2019:

Location: 8.1°S 132.5°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
ABIO10 PGTW 030400
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.0S 133.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1S 133.1E, APPROXIMATELY 296
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 030053Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOW AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 030053Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20-25 KNOT
WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LLC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS 97S BORDERING AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (15-25 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT. WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE NORTHERN TIMOR SEA
SUPPORT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT 97S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST, GRADUALLY
INTENSIFYING TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

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Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Wednesday, April 3rd 2019 à 12:44