05W(DOKSURI) Typhoon intensity forecast by 36h//TD 04E//TS 05L(DON) new lease of life//Invest 98L//2203utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TS 05W(DOKSURI).

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH VIGOROUS FLARING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SLOWLY BUILDING NEAR THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK. DRY SUBSIDENT AIR UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO HAMPER WRAPPING OF THE CONVECTION AROUND THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WHILE GFS MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE WEAK VORTEX REMAINS TILTED. A 212023Z F16 PASS OFFERED LITTLE HELP TO FINE TUNE THE CENTER POSITION, BUT DID REVEAL THAT CORE CONVECTION WAS STILL WEAK AT THAT TIME. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED BASED ON AVAILABLE FIXES WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THANKS TO THE PARTIAL EXPOSURE. HOWEVER, A LATE-ARRIVING 220044Z ASCAT-B PARTIAL PASS (NO CENTER COVERAGE) RAISES THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE LLC COULD BE 20 MILES FURTHER WEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS RAISED TO 35 KNOTS, BASED ON T2.5 FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD, WITH A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CONVECTIVE WRAPPING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH NOTED. THE LATEST CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ANALYSIS INDICATES NORTHERLY SHEAR HAS TICKED UP TO 10-15 KNOTS, FURTHER CONTRIBUTING TO THE SLOW DEVELOPMENT. OUTFLOW IS PREDOMINANTLY CONSTRAINED TO AN EQUATORWARD CHANNEL, WITH A TUTT TO THE NORTH EAST PROVIDING A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT. OCEAN CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) DOKSURI SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY GET ITS ACT TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT DAY, WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND BETTER ALIGNMENT OF THE VORTEX EXPECTED AS CENTRAL CONVECTION BUILDS AND WRAPS AROUND THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) TO OCCUR AFTER TAU 24, AS INDICATED BY MULTIPLE RI AIDS. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRACK WEST NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, AFTER WHICH A BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR, ALLOWING DOKSURI TO START TRACKING POLEWARD. THE TIMING OF THE POLEWARD TURN WILL LARGELY DICTATE IF DOKSURI TRACKS MORE TOWARDS SOUTHERN TAIWAN, OR FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE RYUKUS. PEAK INTENSITY IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE 105 KNOTS. THE TRACK WAS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BASED ON THE GFS AND HAFS-A SOLUTIONS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND HAFS-A MODEL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE SPREAD ENVELOPE DUE TO A FASTER POLEWARD TURN. THE REST OF THE SPREAD IS SLOW TO GAIN LATITUDE AS THE SYSTEM TAKES ITS TIME DEVELOPING, WHICH IS WHAT CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATES.