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05S(DARIAN): subtropical,ETT forecast by 36/48h//Over-land remnants of TC 06S(ELLIE) still alive//Invest 91P:subtropical//3109utc



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JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 05S(DARIAN).
JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 05S(DARIAN).
JTWC PH
 Joint Typhoon Warning Center
JTWC BIS


SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 05S(DARIAN). ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 31/06UTC.


CURRENT ESTIMATED INTENSITY IS 30KNOTS/1000MB.


TC 05S(DARIAN) REACHED 3 DISTINCT INTENSITY PEAKS: TWO AT SUPER TYPHOON LEVEL(130KNOTS) AND THE LAST ONE AT 115KNOTS(CAT 4 US). JTWC COMMENTED ON WARNING 23 ISSUED AT 28/03UTC: DESPITE NOW TRACKING OVER 24-25 DEGREE WATERS, WANING OUTFLOW, AND BEING NEARLY ENCOMPASSED BY MID-LEVEL DRY AIR, TC DARIAN CONTINUES ITS LONG-TIME TREND OF DEFYING EXPECTATIONS, LOGIC, AND CONVENTIONAL WISDOM.

05S(DARIAN): subtropical,ETT forecast by 36/48h//Over-land remnants of TC 06S(ELLIE) still alive//Invest 91P:subtropical//3109utc
SH, 05, 2022121106,96S,  959E,  15, 1008, DB
SH, 05, 2022121112,97S,  965E,  15, 1008, DB
SH, 05, 2022121118,99S,  971E,  15, 1007, DB
SH, 05, 2022121200,101S, 977E,  25, 1006, TD
SH, 05, 2022121206,106S, 977E,  25, 1005, TD
SH, 05, 2022121212,108S, 974E,  25, 1004, TD
SH, 05, 2022121218,109S, 970E,  25, 1004, TD
SH, 05, 2022121300,107S, 966E,  25, 1004, TD
SH, 05, 2022121306,105S, 962E,  25, 1004, TD
SH, 05, 2022121312,103S, 955E,  25, 1004, TD
SH, 05, 2022121318,105S, 952E,  25, 1004, TD
SH, 05, 2022121400,107S, 948E,  25, 1004, TD
SH, 05, 2022121406,108S, 940E,  25, 1004, TD
SH, 05, 2022121412,102S, 926E,  25, 1004, TD
SH, 05, 2022121418,96S,  916E,  25, 1004, TD
SH, 05, 2022121500,88S,  918E,  30, 1003, TD
SH, 05, 2022121506,86S,  924E,  30, 1000, TD
SH, 05, 2022121512,83S,  932E,  30, 1000, TD
SH, 05, 2022121518,84S,  939E,  25, 1003, TD
SH, 05, 2022121600,86S,  944E,  25, 1002, TD
SH, 05, 2022121606,88S,  948E,  25, 1002, TD
SH, 05, 2022121612,92S,  950E,  25, 1001, TD
SH, 05, 2022121618,97S,  945E,  25, 1001, TD
SH, 05, 2022121700,102S, 937E,  25, 1001, TD
SH, 05, 2022121706,107S, 934E,  25,  998, TD
SH, 05, 2022121712,113S, 932E,  25,  998, TD
SH, 05, 2022121718,116S, 931E,  25,  998, TD
SH, 05, 2022121800,117S, 929E,  30,  995, TD
SH, 05, 2022121806,118S, 927E,  35,  995, TS
SH, 05, 2022121812,119S, 928E,  40,  995, TS
SH, 05, 2022121818,120S, 930E,  45,  994, TS
SH, 05, 2022121900,121S, 932E,  50,  988, TS
SH, 05, 2022121906,123S, 933E,  65,  982, TY
SH, 05, 2022121912,126S, 934E,  75,  974, TY   
SH, 05, 2022121918,131S, 934E,  75,  974, TY
SH, 05, 2022122000,135S, 932E,  90,  963, TY
SH, 05, 2022122006,138S, 929E, 110,  946, TY
SH, 05, 2022122012,141S, 926E, 115,  941, TY
SH, 05, 2022122018,142S, 920E, 130,  927, ST
SH, 05, 2022122100,141S, 914E, 130,  926, ST
SH, 05, 2022122106,139S, 907E, 130,  927, ST
SH, 05, 2022122112,138S, 898E, 130,  927, ST
SH, 05, 2022122118,133S, 890E, 125,  935, TY
SH, 05, 2022122200,132S, 882E, 120,  940, TY
SH, 05, 2022122206,130S, 874E, 115,  944, TY
SH, 05, 2022122212,129S, 867E, 105,  953, TY
SH, 05, 2022122218,128S, 858E,  95,  961, TY
SH, 05, 2022122300,125S, 851E,  95,  961, TY
SH, 05, 2022122306,124S, 843E, 115,  944, TY
SH, 05, 2022122312,123S, 838E, 130,  930, ST
SH, 05, 2022122318,123S, 832E, 115,  944, TY
SH, 05, 2022122400,123S, 831E, 105,  950, TY
SH, 05, 2022122406,125S, 832E, 100,  956, TY
SH, 05, 2022122412,130S, 837E,  95,  961, TY
SH, 05, 2022122418,135S, 842E,  95,  961, TY
SH, 05, 2022122500,143S, 846E,  85,  968, TY
SH, 05, 2022122506,150S, 848E,  85,  970, TY
SH, 05, 2022122512,155S, 850E,  90,  966, TY
SH, 05, 2022122518,160S, 852E, 100,  960, TY
SH, 05, 2022122600,163S, 851E, 110,  950, TY
SH, 05, 2022122606,165S, 850E, 115,  944, TY
SH, 05, 2022122612,168S, 848E, 110,  948, TY
SH, 05, 2022122618,171S, 843E, 105,  953, TY
SH, 05, 2022122700,175S, 837E,  90,  967, TY
SH, 05, 2022122706,178S, 828E,  80,  976, TY
SH, 05, 2022122712,181S, 816E,  75,  979, TY
SH, 05, 2022122718,187S, 803E,  70,  983, TY
SH, 05, 2022122800,195S, 792E,  60,  989, TS
SH, 05, 2022122806,203S, 776E,  55,  992, TS
SH, 05, 2022122812,209S, 763E,  55,  993, TS
SH, 05, 2022122818,215S, 752E,  55,  995, TS
SH, 05, 2022122900,224S, 737E,  55,  994, TS
SH, 05, 2022122906,234S, 724E,  55,  996, TS
SH, 05, 2022122912,245S, 714E,  50,  997, TS
SH, 05, 2022122918,254S, 707E,  50,  995, TS
SH, 05, 2022123000,261S, 702E,  45, 1001, TS
SH, 05, 2022123006,274S, 695E,  45, 1000, TS
SH, 05, 2022123012,282S, 691E,  45,  998, TS
SH, 05, 2022123018,293S, 686E,  45,  999, TS
SH, 05, 2022123100,304S, 682E,  40, 1001, SS
SH, 05, 2022123106,313S, 683E,  30, 1000, SD

WARNING 28/FINAL ISSUED AT 31/03UTC.

REMARKS: 310300Z POSITION NEAR 31.0S 68.2E. 31DEC22. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (DARIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 854 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. A 310038Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A RAGGED CENTER WITH EXTENSIVE DRY AIR PRESENT OVER THE SYSTEM. RECENT WIND SPEED IMAGERY REVEALS AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH A WEAK FRONTAL STRUCTURE. A 301705Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWED 40-45 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD CONSERVATIVELY AT 40 KNOTS. BASED ON THE AVAILABLE DATA, 05S IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BUT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRA- TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS IT ACCELERATES INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 21 FEET.
REMARKS: 310300Z POSITION NEAR 31.0S 68.2E. 31DEC22. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (DARIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 854 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. A 310038Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A RAGGED CENTER WITH EXTENSIVE DRY AIR PRESENT OVER THE SYSTEM. RECENT WIND SPEED IMAGERY REVEALS AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH A WEAK FRONTAL STRUCTURE. A 301705Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWED 40-45 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD CONSERVATIVELY AT 40 KNOTS. BASED ON THE AVAILABLE DATA, 05S IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BUT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRA- TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS IT ACCELERATES INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 21 FEET.



GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY PACKED.


05S IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BUT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRA- TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS IT ACCELERATES INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
05S IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BUT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRA- TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS IT ACCELERATES INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.


SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: OVER-LAND REMNANTS OF TC 06S(ELLIE). ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 31/06UTC.

05S(DARIAN): subtropical,ETT forecast by 36/48h//Over-land remnants of TC 06S(ELLIE) still alive//Invest 91P:subtropical//3109utc
SH, 06, 2022122806,182S, 1272E,  20, 1007, DB
SH, 06, 2022122812,181S, 1270E,  20, 1007, DB
SH, 06, 2022122818,180S, 1267E,  20, 1007, DB
SH, 06, 2022122900,178S, 1264E,  20, 1007, DB
SH, 06, 2022122906,175S, 1260E,  20, 1007, DB
SH, 06, 2022122912,173S, 1257E,  20, 1007, DB
SH, 06, 2022122918,170S, 1257E,  25,  998, TD
SH, 06, 2022123000,167S, 1259E,  25,  998, TD
SH, 06, 2022123006,164S, 1265E,  25,  996, TD
SH, 06, 2022123012,165S, 1273E,  25,  994, TD
SH, 06, 2022123018,168S, 1280E,  25,  994, TD
SH, 06, 2022123100,172S, 1282E,  25,  994, TD
SH, 06, 2022123106,177S, 1277E,  25,  991, TD



SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN: INVEST 91P. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 31/06UTC. ADVISORY(ABPW) ISSUED AT 31/06UTC.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 24.4S 170.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.6S 168.2E, APPROXIMATELY 173 NM SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. A 302132Z ASCAT-B IMAGE REVEALS AN ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 30-35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 91P IS LOCATED UNDER A NORTHERLY SUBTROPICAL JET WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE BAROCLINICITY. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A MEANDERING SOUTHWARD TRACK WITH PERSISTENT UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 24.4S 170.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.6S 168.2E, APPROXIMATELY 173 NM SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. A 302132Z ASCAT-B IMAGE REVEALS AN ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 30-35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 91P IS LOCATED UNDER A NORTHERLY SUBTROPICAL JET WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE BAROCLINICITY. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A MEANDERING SOUTHWARD TRACK WITH PERSISTENT UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
SH, 91, 2022122812,184S, 1645E,  15, 1010, DB
SH, 91, 2022122818,188S, 1652E,  15, 1010, DB
SH, 91, 2022122900,195S, 1661E,  15, 1005, DB
SH, 91, 2022122906,203S, 1670E,  20, 1007, DB
SH, 91, 2022122912,212S, 1680E,  20, 1007, DB
SH, 91, 2022122918,216S, 1687E,  25, 1003, TD
SH, 91, 2022123000,219S, 1696E,  25, 1004, TD
SH, 91, 2022123006,227S, 1698E,  25,  999, TD
SH, 91, 2022123012,233S, 1695E,  30,  998, TD
SH, 91, 2022123018,240S, 1691E,  35,  995, SS
SH, 91, 2022123100,246S, 1682E,  35,  996, SS
SH, 91, 2022123106,248S, 1676E,  35,  996, SS

INVEST 91P IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES.
INVEST 91P IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES.


05S(DARIAN): subtropical,ETT forecast by 36/48h//Over-land remnants of TC 06S(ELLIE) still alive//Invest 91P:subtropical//3109utc

 


Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Saturday, December 31st 2022 à 13:20
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