03UTC: cyclone OMA(15P): Final Warning, estimated peak intensity reached was 75knots (CAT1 US)

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REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 28.1S 161.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 357 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF KINGSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH LIMITED CONVECTION AND A
FULLY EXPOSED, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED
LLCC. THERE ARE SEVERAL SMALLER CIRCULATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LLCC HOWEVER THEY ARE LESS DEFINED THAN THE PRIMARY CIRCULATION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS WHICH IS HIGHER THAN THE PGTW
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) DUE TO THE 221039Z
ASCAT IMAGE THAT SHOWED 35-40 KNOT WIND BARBS. IN THE HOURS SINCE
THE ASCAT PASS THE SYSTEM HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE IN TERMS OF
STRUCTURE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (25-30 KNOTS) VWS, IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE, AND IS
TRACKING THROUGH COOL (26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS OFFSET BY A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL THAT CONTINUES TO PREVENT A RAPID DISSIPATION TREND. TC 15P
IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AS STEERING HAS SHIFTED DUE TO THE STRONG
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS THE
SYSTEM WILL CURVE EQUATORWARD AS THE STEERING RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE STR BUILDING IN WILL ALSO CUT OFF THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS PREVENTING ADDITIONAL WEAKENING,
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE. ADDITIONAL FACTORS INCLUDING DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT AND SUSTAINED STRONG VWS WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION
OVER WATER BY TAU 12. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE EQUATORWARD TURN WITH SOME VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING
AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 19 FEET.//
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JMV File/JTWC
1519021100 164S1603E  25
1519021106 155S1612E  25
1519021112 151S1625E  25
1519021118 144S1636E  30
1519021200 140S1645E  35
1519021206 137S1649E  35
1519021212 137S1655E  45
1519021218 140S1658E  45
1519021300 143S1654E  45
1519021306 144S1650E  45
1519021312 141S1654E  55
1519021318 144S1654E  55
1519021400 147S1655E  55
1519021406 149S1655E  55
1519021412 151S1655E  55
1519021418 152S1654E  55
1519021500 151S1650E  60
1519021506 151S1651E  65
1519021512 152S1648E  70
1519021518 153S1645E  70
1519021600 154S1643E  70
1519021606 154S1642E  70
1519021612 153S1642E  70
1519021618 153S1644E  65
1519021700 155S1642E  65
1519021706 160S1643E  60
1519021712 164S1644E  60
1519021718 168S1644E  55
1519021800 173S1640E  50
1519021806 180S1636E  45
1519021812 185S1631E  50
1519021818 190S1627E  60
1519021900 195S1624E  75
1519021906 200S1621E  75
1519021912 205S1618E  75
1519021918 209S1615E  75
1519022000 212S1612E  70
1519022006 215S1610E  65
1519022012 217S1608E  60
1519022018 221S1604E  55
1519022100 226S1602E  50
1519022106 232S1599E  45
1519022112 238S1597E  45
1519022118 247S1592E  40
1519022200 257S1591E  40
1519022206 267S1593E  35
1519022212 272S1599E  35
1519022218 277S1606E  35
1519022300 282S1614E  35
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