0159UTC
Microwave data still depict a well organised system with an eye feature. Forecast to weaken rapidly next 72H and fall below 35knots in 48H. No threat to any land.
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
2019 FEB 27 0310UTC WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC
TY #WUTIP #02W
This system is currently analysed as a 90knots TC, CAT2 US.
WDPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 32//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 303 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) BUT
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS EVIDENCED BY EROSION ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK
AND SLIGHT WARMING OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION, ALBEIT MAINTAINING A
RAGGED 17-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE RAGGED EYE WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT FOR TILT BY LINING UP
WITH THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 262059Z NEAR-SURFACE 37GHZ
SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE
WEAKENING TREND. THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME EXPOSED TO THE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES AND THE INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. HOWEVER, THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL REMAINS STRONG AND IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE
ERODING CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE AT 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS IN A COL AREA BETWEEN
THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A
SECONDARY STR TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY WUTIP WILL REMAIN QS IN THE NEAR TERM THEN SLOWLY DRIFT
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWESTWARD AS A LOWER REFLECTION OF THE
STR TO THE EAST RESUMES STEERING. THIS STORM MOTION WILL BE DIRECTLY
OPPOSED TO THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW, FURTHER EXACERBATING THE IMPACT
OF VWS (OVER 30 KNOTS), RESULTING IN A MORE RAPID DETERIORATION THAT
WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72, POSSIBLY SOONER. THE NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK BUT WITH INCREASING
SPREAD TO OVER 180NM BY TAU 72. THIS, PLUS THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHEN
THE TC WILL EJECT FROM THE COL AREA LEND AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
2019 FEB 27 0310UTC WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC
TY #WUTIP #02W
This system is currently analysed as a 90knots TC, CAT2 US.
WARNING 32/JTWC
Click on the image to read the Remarks for Warning 32 and view sat pics and charts .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 27, 2019:
Location: 15.7°N 140.1°E
Maximum Winds: 90 kt (170km/h)
Gusts: 110 kt (205km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 958 mb
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
Click on the image to read the Remarks for Warning 32 and view sat pics and charts .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 27, 2019:
Location: 15.7°N 140.1°E
Maximum Winds: 90 kt (170km/h)
Gusts: 110 kt (205km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 958 mb
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
WDPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 32//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 303 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) BUT
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS EVIDENCED BY EROSION ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK
AND SLIGHT WARMING OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION, ALBEIT MAINTAINING A
RAGGED 17-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE RAGGED EYE WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT FOR TILT BY LINING UP
WITH THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 262059Z NEAR-SURFACE 37GHZ
SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE
WEAKENING TREND. THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME EXPOSED TO THE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES AND THE INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. HOWEVER, THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL REMAINS STRONG AND IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE
ERODING CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE AT 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS IN A COL AREA BETWEEN
THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A
SECONDARY STR TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY WUTIP WILL REMAIN QS IN THE NEAR TERM THEN SLOWLY DRIFT
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWESTWARD AS A LOWER REFLECTION OF THE
STR TO THE EAST RESUMES STEERING. THIS STORM MOTION WILL BE DIRECTLY
OPPOSED TO THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW, FURTHER EXACERBATING THE IMPACT
OF VWS (OVER 30 KNOTS), RESULTING IN A MORE RAPID DETERIORATION THAT
WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72, POSSIBLY SOONER. THE NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK BUT WITH INCREASING
SPREAD TO OVER 180NM BY TAU 72. THIS, PLUS THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHEN
THE TC WILL EJECT FROM THE COL AREA LEND AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
0246UTC: THE SIGNATURE REMAINS GOOD. VERY COMPACT SYSTEM
0146UTC
TERRA 0105UTC
2337UTC
