WARNING 14/JTWC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Location: 13.0°S 141.3°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 991 mb
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 141.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO AN OCCLUDED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN THE WEIPA RADAR LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW/KNES/ADRM DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45KTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HAS
STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 20P IS LOCATED BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST
WHICH HAS CAUSED A QUASI STATIONARY STORM MOTION OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. WITH THE LATTER BEING THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE. AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS, IT WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING
FEATURE, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL 130NM NORTHWEST
OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48. AFTER
LANDFALL, THE TC WILL TURN SOUTHWARD INTO THE AUSTRALIAN OUTBACK AS
THE STR TRANSITS TO THE EAST. VERY WARM ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (32 CELSIUS) IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA COMBINED WITH
PERSISTENT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION UP TO 105 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD, PERSISTENT
LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE A RAPID WEAKENING TREND. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT HOWEVER THE QUASI-STATIONARY NATURE OF
THE SYSTEM IS NOT CAPTURED IN ANY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE THUS LENDING
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.//
NNNN
Location: 13.0°S 141.3°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 991 mb
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 141.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO AN OCCLUDED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN THE WEIPA RADAR LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW/KNES/ADRM DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45KTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HAS
STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 20P IS LOCATED BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST
WHICH HAS CAUSED A QUASI STATIONARY STORM MOTION OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. WITH THE LATTER BEING THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE. AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS, IT WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING
FEATURE, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL 130NM NORTHWEST
OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48. AFTER
LANDFALL, THE TC WILL TURN SOUTHWARD INTO THE AUSTRALIAN OUTBACK AS
THE STR TRANSITS TO THE EAST. VERY WARM ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (32 CELSIUS) IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA COMBINED WITH
PERSISTENT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION UP TO 105 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD, PERSISTENT
LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE A RAPID WEAKENING TREND. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT HOWEVER THE QUASI-STATIONARY NATURE OF
THE SYSTEM IS NOT CAPTURED IN ANY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE THUS LENDING
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.//
NNNN
0220UTC
2116UTC
00UTC
