00UTC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Location: 7.3°N 134.7°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt ( 45km/h)
Gusts: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
WDPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 009//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 18 NM EAST
OF KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS ISOLATED, FLARING DEEP CONVECTION WITH
SHALLOW RAIN BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.0-T1.5 (25 KTS). UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA WITH MODERATE (15-
20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE IS SUPPORTIVE AT 27-28 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THE STR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TD 03W ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK UNTIL LANDFALL OVER MINDANAO BY TAU 48. THE MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST AND MAY SUPPORT MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO
30 KTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND LAND
INTERACTION WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION PRIOR TO TAU 72. THERE IS A
BIFURCATION IN THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE WITH NAVGEM, GALWEM, AND
ECMWF CLUSTERED AROUND A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK WHILE GFS AND THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS TURN THE CYCLONE MORE EQUATORWARD. TWO
OF THE THREE NORTHERN (NAVGEM AND ECMWF) TRACKS FOLLOW THE
CIRCULATION INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BEYOND TAU 72 WHILE THE OTHER
SOLUTIONS CALL FOR DISSIPATION SOMETIME BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72. THE
JTWC TRACK IS HEDGED NORTH OF CONSENSUS, FAVORING THE NORTHERN
SOLUTIONS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
Location: 7.3°N 134.7°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt ( 45km/h)
Gusts: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
WDPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 009//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 18 NM EAST
OF KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS ISOLATED, FLARING DEEP CONVECTION WITH
SHALLOW RAIN BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.0-T1.5 (25 KTS). UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA WITH MODERATE (15-
20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE IS SUPPORTIVE AT 27-28 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THE STR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TD 03W ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK UNTIL LANDFALL OVER MINDANAO BY TAU 48. THE MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST AND MAY SUPPORT MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO
30 KTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND LAND
INTERACTION WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION PRIOR TO TAU 72. THERE IS A
BIFURCATION IN THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE WITH NAVGEM, GALWEM, AND
ECMWF CLUSTERED AROUND A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK WHILE GFS AND THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS TURN THE CYCLONE MORE EQUATORWARD. TWO
OF THE THREE NORTHERN (NAVGEM AND ECMWF) TRACKS FOLLOW THE
CIRCULATION INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BEYOND TAU 72 WHILE THE OTHER
SOLUTIONS CALL FOR DISSIPATION SOMETIME BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72. THE
JTWC TRACK IS HEDGED NORTH OF CONSENSUS, FAVORING THE NORTHERN
SOLUTIONS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
WARNING 9/JTWC
WARNING 9/JTWC
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