03UTC: TC WALLACE(23S) still fighting wind shear, flaring convection

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TC 23S
As of 00:00 UTC Apr 06, 2019:
Location: 11.7°S 125.1°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure:  mb
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 11.8S 124.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 344 NM WEST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) IMAGE DEPICTS A STRUGGLING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST BEING
SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE ON THE INITIAL POSITION
BASED ON THE SOMEWHAT OBSCURED LLCC IN THE MSI IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS BETWEEN THE PGTW AND APRF AND KNES DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS) AND T3.0 (45 KTS),
WHILE A 052005Z SATCON ESTIMATE IS 52 KTS. DESPITE EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
HIGH (30-40 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND CONVERGENCE ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ARE HINDERING SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION. TC 23S IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH.
AFTER TAU 36, THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR
RE-ORIENTS TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH.
AFTER TAU 96, LOW-LEVEL RIDGING AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BUILD IN TO
THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, PUSHING TC 23S TO A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN VWS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SLOW
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 48, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT,
MODERATE-TO-STRONG VWS, AND MARGINAL DIVERGENCE ALOFT ARE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND. THE ECMWF, UKMET, AND GALWEM MODELS ARE
CONSISTENTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. NAVGEM IS
THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER AND DEPICTS LANDFALL AROUND TAU 96 NEAR PORT
HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. THE LATEST RUN OF GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE HAVE
SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL TO BRUSH THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COAST
OF AUSTRALIA NEAR LEARMONTH. THESE MODELS DO NOT BUILD THE LOW-LEVEL
RIDGING TO THE SOUTH IN AS QUICKLY AS DO THE MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT
ARE NORTH OF CONSENSUS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS HEDGED BETWEEN
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE NORTHERN MODEL GROUPING OF ECMWF,
UKMET, AND GALWEM, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT TRACK
SPREAD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.//
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