WARNING 13/JTWC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Location: 15.0°S 116.8°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Gusts: 70 kt ( 130km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: mb
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 116.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 464 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PERSISTING OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 072220Z SSMIS COLORPCT 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS BETTER
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION, WHICH IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATING THE LOW-
REFLECTIVITY LLCC IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO 4.0 (45 TO 65
KNOTS) FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF, A 072220Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 53
KTS, AND A 072340Z AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 61 KTS.
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY WITH DECREASING VWS
AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30-31 DEGREES CELSIUS), ALLOWING FOR THE SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION. TC 23S HAS A NARROW WINDOW TO INTENSIFY BEFORE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. IT IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO
60 KTS BY TAU 12, THEN BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 24 AS THE
SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, INCREASING VWS, DRIER
AIR, AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. TC 23S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. AFTER TAU 36, TC 23S SHOULD TURN
MORE WESTWARD AND SLOW WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED
WITH A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH CONTINUES TO ERRONEOUSLY RECURVE THE
SYSTEM OVER NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR CROSS-TRACK AGREEMENT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN ALONG-
TRACK SPEED AFTER TAU 48. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE
FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH IS BEING DRAGGED SOUTH
BY NAVGEM. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS THEREFORE PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE AHEAD OF AND NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, HEDGED
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION, AT LATER TAUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z,
082100Z AND 090300Z.//
NNNN
Location: 15.0°S 116.8°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Gusts: 70 kt ( 130km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: mb
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 116.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 464 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PERSISTING OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 072220Z SSMIS COLORPCT 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS BETTER
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION, WHICH IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATING THE LOW-
REFLECTIVITY LLCC IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO 4.0 (45 TO 65
KNOTS) FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF, A 072220Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 53
KTS, AND A 072340Z AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 61 KTS.
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY WITH DECREASING VWS
AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30-31 DEGREES CELSIUS), ALLOWING FOR THE SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION. TC 23S HAS A NARROW WINDOW TO INTENSIFY BEFORE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. IT IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO
60 KTS BY TAU 12, THEN BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 24 AS THE
SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, INCREASING VWS, DRIER
AIR, AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. TC 23S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. AFTER TAU 36, TC 23S SHOULD TURN
MORE WESTWARD AND SLOW WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED
WITH A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH CONTINUES TO ERRONEOUSLY RECURVE THE
SYSTEM OVER NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR CROSS-TRACK AGREEMENT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN ALONG-
TRACK SPEED AFTER TAU 48. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE
FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH IS BEING DRAGGED SOUTH
BY NAVGEM. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS THEREFORE PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE AHEAD OF AND NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, HEDGED
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION, AT LATER TAUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z,
082100Z AND 090300Z.//
NNNN
WARNING 13/JTWC
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