03UTC: TC TREVOR(20P) intensifying rapidly over the Coral Sea with expected landfall over Cape York shortly before 36h

TC TREVOR(20P)
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 18, 2019:
Location: 12.2°S 145.7°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt (85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 mb
INTENSIFYING
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 145.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 282 NM NORTH
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
REVEALS WELL-ORGANIZED RAINBANDS WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI IMAGERY AND A EXTRAPOLATED 172015Z
SSMIS COLOR 37GHZ IMAGE. THE 171800Z POSITION HAS SHIFTED
SIGNIFICANTLY, AS MICROWAVE IMAGERY ARRIVED AFTER THE FORECAST WAS
ISSUED THAT SHOWED A POSITION APPROXIMATELY 45 NM NORTH. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 172015Z SATCON ESTIMATE
OF 46 KTS AND THE ABRF AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESIMATES OF
T3.0 (45 KTS), BUT ABOVE THE PGTW ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS). THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE. TC 20P IS TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO ITS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. OVER THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO RE-ORIENT TO THE
EAST, ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 72. THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO 75 KTS
BEFORE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL ALONG CAPE YORK AROUND TAU 36.
WHILE OVER CAPE YORK, TC 20P WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BUT, AROUND
TAU 72, IT WILL EMERGE OVER THE VERY WARM (30-32 DEGREES CELSIUS)
WATERS OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. AT THAT POINT, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AGAIN, THIS TIME TO 105 KTS, IF NOT
HIGHER, BY TAU 120, BEFORE IT APPROACHES LAND. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST, AS SMALL SHIFTS IN THE TRACK
COULD GREATLY IMPACT THE INTENSITY DUE TO CHANGES IN THE DURATION OF
LAND INTERACTION AND THE TIMING OF LANDFALL. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN POOR AGREEMENT. THE LATEST RUN OF NAVGEM PREDICTS AN
UNREALISTIC DUE SOUTHWARD TRACK OVER THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA, WHILE
HWRF SHOWS A DUE WESTWARD TRACK THAT MAKES LANDFALL ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS HEDGED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE NORTH OF AND AHEAD OF THE
MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS, BETWEEN CONSENSUS AND THE GFS SOLUTION. THERE
WAS A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND THIS MOST RECENT ONE DUE TO THE RE-ADJUSTED 171800Z
POSITION, ALTHOUGH THE TRACK TRENDING WESTWARD AND THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 72 HAS REMAINED THE SAME. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.
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