03UTC: TC SAVANNAH(19S) slowly intensifying in the middle of the South Indian Ocean

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TC SAVANNAH(19S)
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 15, 2019:
Location: 13.6°S 95.2°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 mb
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 95.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1394 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY CENTRAL CONVECTION.
A 150019Z METOP-B 91GHZ IMAGE INDICATES CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING AND GIVES FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW, AND BELOW THE APRF AND KNES
ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS), ALONG WITH THE ADT ESTIMATE OF 53
KNOTS FROM 150140Z. TC 19S IS LOCATED WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT WITH A WEAK NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST AND
A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. THROUGH TAU 24,
TC 19S WILL TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NER AND THEN TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
WITH CONDUCIVE SST VALUES (27-28C), MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36. UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 36. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
HEDGED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF CONSENSUS. THE MAJORITY OF MODELS DEPICT A
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST THAT WILL LEAD TO A BREAK IN
THE RIDGING AND RE-ORIENTATION OF THE STR TO THE WEST, BUT DO NOT
PREDICT SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK MOTION IN RESPONSE. DIFFERENCES IN TRACK
SPEED AND DIRECTION GENERATE A LARGE SPREAD OF 410NM BY TAU 120.
THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. DUE
TO THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, TC 19S SHOULD INTENSIFY
STEADILY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TO A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 72
AND THEN MAINTAIN UNTIL INCREASING SHEAR AND LOW SST BEGIN TO ERODE
TC 19S AFTER TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS
13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.//
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