TC HALEH 17S
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 05, 2019:
Location: 19.6°S 72.4°E
Maximum Winds: 110 kt (205km/h)
Gusts: 135 kt (250km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 941 mb
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 72.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 NM SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE 20-25 NM WIDE EYE HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH A
THINNING CLOUD FIELD ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, ON THE EYE FOUND IN THE EIR LOOP AND ON
THE 042243Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KTS IS
HEDGED SLIGHTLY BELOW THE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KTS) GIVEN THE 042058Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 110
KTS AND THE DEVELOPING ASYMMETRY IN THE CLOUD FIELD. THE ENVIRONMENT
IS FAVORABLE WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST). TC 17S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS A NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) BUILDS IN TO ITS NORTHEAST AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO ITS SOUTH SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 36.
BEYOND TAU 36, VWS INCREASES AND SST DECREASES ABRUPTLY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, CORRELATING WITH A STEADY INTENSITY DROP
TO 45 KTS AT 120 HOURS. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AFTER TAU 48 (PAST 30 DEGREES SOUTH) AS TC 17S PASSES THE 26
DEGREE SST ISOTHERM BEFORE IT MEETS AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE
WEST, PULLING ITS TRACK EASTWARD AFTER TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS, HOWEVER, THE TIMING
OF THE RECURVATURE TO THE EAST AFTER THIS POINT VARIES BY MODEL
DEPENDING ON HOW THEY PORTRAY THE PASSING OF THE TROUGH. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.//
NNNN
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 05, 2019:
Location: 19.6°S 72.4°E
Maximum Winds: 110 kt (205km/h)
Gusts: 135 kt (250km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 941 mb
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 72.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 NM SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE 20-25 NM WIDE EYE HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH A
THINNING CLOUD FIELD ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, ON THE EYE FOUND IN THE EIR LOOP AND ON
THE 042243Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KTS IS
HEDGED SLIGHTLY BELOW THE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KTS) GIVEN THE 042058Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 110
KTS AND THE DEVELOPING ASYMMETRY IN THE CLOUD FIELD. THE ENVIRONMENT
IS FAVORABLE WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST). TC 17S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS A NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) BUILDS IN TO ITS NORTHEAST AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO ITS SOUTH SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 36.
BEYOND TAU 36, VWS INCREASES AND SST DECREASES ABRUPTLY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, CORRELATING WITH A STEADY INTENSITY DROP
TO 45 KTS AT 120 HOURS. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AFTER TAU 48 (PAST 30 DEGREES SOUTH) AS TC 17S PASSES THE 26
DEGREE SST ISOTHERM BEFORE IT MEETS AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE
WEST, PULLING ITS TRACK EASTWARD AFTER TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS, HOWEVER, THE TIMING
OF THE RECURVATURE TO THE EAST AFTER THIS POINT VARIES BY MODEL
DEPENDING ON HOW THEY PORTRAY THE PASSING OF THE TROUGH. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.//
NNNN
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