03UTC: TC 23S has formed, forecast to gradually intensify to a category 1 US in 72hours

TC 23S
As of 00:00 UTC Apr 05, 2019:
Location: 11.4°S 128.4°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 11.5S 128.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 161 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A FAST-CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM, ALBEIT WITH ITS DEEP
CENTRAL CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTHWESTWARD, PARTIALLY EXPOSING THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC AND ON A RAGGED AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION
FEATURE IN THE RADAR LOOP FROM DARWIN WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK INTENSITY OF
T2.5/35KTS FROM ADRM AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A RECENT SMAP IMAGE
SHOWING 32KTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER
MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET
BY EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD CHANNEL.
ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29C ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
HIGH (STH) TO THE SOUTHEAST ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. TC 23S
WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THEN TURN MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER
TAU 72 AS THE STH ADJUSTS NORTHEASTWARD. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 70KTS BY
TAU 96, AIDED BY SSTS RISING UP TO 30C IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN OFF
PORT HEDLAND. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS WILL TRIGGER A WEAKENING
TREND DOWN TO 50KTS BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TRACK WITH ECMWF THE RIGHT-OF-
TRACK OUTLIER BEYOND TAU 48 AND NAVGEM THE LEFT-OF TRACK OUTLIER
BEYOND TAU 36. IN VIEW OF THESE AND GIVEN THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF
THE CYCLONE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL JTWC WARNING
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 040130).//
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