https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Location: 22.4°S 67.7°E
Maximum Winds: 85 kt (160km/h)
Gusts: 105 kt ( 195km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 963 mb
CATEGORY US: 2 WEAKENING
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 22.6S 67.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 598 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA, INCLUDING A 282234Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
IMAGE. THE INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH AGENCY SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5 (77 KNOTS) TO
T5.0 (90 KNOTS) AND COMMENSURATE AUTOMATED DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. TC 22S IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR HAS IMPACTED THE SYSTEM SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS, YIELDING DISORGANIZED CONVECTION AND STEADILY DECREASING
INTENSITY. TC 22S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUING TRACKING GENERALLY
POLEWARD ALONG THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AROUND TAU 72, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION FROM A
TROPICAL TO SUBTROPICAL STORM WITH EXPANSIVE, ASYMMETRIC WIND
RADII AS IT MERGES WITH A CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. TRANSITION
IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE BY TAU 96. STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE FORECAST DUE TO VWS AND COOLER WATER BUT WILL NOT
KILL THE STORM. INSTEAD, BAROCLINIC SUPPORT WILL ALLOW TC 22S TO
MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AS IT COMPLETES SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO, BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
LATERAL SPREAD AMONG THE MEMBERS. THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST
LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL FORECAST ENVELOPE, AND CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST. GIVEN MODEL-BASED
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK DIRECTION, CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS
33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.//
NNNN
Location: 22.4°S 67.7°E
Maximum Winds: 85 kt (160km/h)
Gusts: 105 kt ( 195km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 963 mb
CATEGORY US: 2 WEAKENING
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 22.6S 67.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 598 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA, INCLUDING A 282234Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
IMAGE. THE INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH AGENCY SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5 (77 KNOTS) TO
T5.0 (90 KNOTS) AND COMMENSURATE AUTOMATED DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. TC 22S IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR HAS IMPACTED THE SYSTEM SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS, YIELDING DISORGANIZED CONVECTION AND STEADILY DECREASING
INTENSITY. TC 22S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUING TRACKING GENERALLY
POLEWARD ALONG THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AROUND TAU 72, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION FROM A
TROPICAL TO SUBTROPICAL STORM WITH EXPANSIVE, ASYMMETRIC WIND
RADII AS IT MERGES WITH A CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. TRANSITION
IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE BY TAU 96. STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE FORECAST DUE TO VWS AND COOLER WATER BUT WILL NOT
KILL THE STORM. INSTEAD, BAROCLINIC SUPPORT WILL ALLOW TC 22S TO
MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AS IT COMPLETES SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO, BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
LATERAL SPREAD AMONG THE MEMBERS. THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST
LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL FORECAST ENVELOPE, AND CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST. GIVEN MODEL-BASED
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK DIRECTION, CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS
33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.//
NNNN
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