WARNING 9/JTWC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Location: 17.1°S 61.6°E
Maximum Winds: 75 kt (140km/h)
Gusts: 90 kt ( 170km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 977 mb
CATEGORY 1 US INTENSIFYING
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 61.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 304 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM
WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A DEVELOPING EYE. A
232341Z GMI 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE
BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE EYEWALL WITH A RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES (28-29C) ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM
ALL AGENCIES AS WELL AS A 232052Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 74 KNOTS. A
COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
WILL ALLOW TC 22S TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING, REACHING AN INTENSITY OF
95 KNOTS BY TAU 24, AND CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 115 KTS
AT 72 HOURS. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASING VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT AS
TC 22S MOVES UNDER UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING
TREND AND SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120. TC 22S IS SLOWLY
TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD BUT IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 AS A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 72, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS STILL
EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON THE TIMING OF THE RECURVE, THEN DIVERGES SHARPLY WITH A
320NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z,
242100Z AND 250300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Location: 17.1°S 61.6°E
Maximum Winds: 75 kt (140km/h)
Gusts: 90 kt ( 170km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 977 mb
CATEGORY 1 US INTENSIFYING
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 61.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 304 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM
WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A DEVELOPING EYE. A
232341Z GMI 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE
BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE EYEWALL WITH A RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES (28-29C) ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM
ALL AGENCIES AS WELL AS A 232052Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 74 KNOTS. A
COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
WILL ALLOW TC 22S TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING, REACHING AN INTENSITY OF
95 KNOTS BY TAU 24, AND CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 115 KTS
AT 72 HOURS. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASING VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT AS
TC 22S MOVES UNDER UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING
TREND AND SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120. TC 22S IS SLOWLY
TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD BUT IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 AS A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 72, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS STILL
EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON THE TIMING OF THE RECURVE, THEN DIVERGES SHARPLY WITH A
320NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z,
242100Z AND 250300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
01UTC
WARNING 9/JTWC
2339UTC
