0210UTC
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 26.4S 177.5W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 519 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SYSTEM BEGINNING TO UNRAVEL WITH WARMING
CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A
282146Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATING WEAKENING, TIGHTLY
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
OF MODERATE (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE (27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A STRONG
POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL. HOWEVER, WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS, TC 16P WILL DRIVE INTO HIGH (30-40 KT) VWS AND COOLER SST (26
CELSIUS), PROMPTING THE START OF THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 4.0/4.5 (77-90 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND
4.5/4.5 (77-90 KNOTS) FROM KNES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STEERING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST. SOUTHEASTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 12 UNTIL THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO ROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND TURNS EASTWARD.
AFTER TAU 12, TC 16P WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36
INTO A COLD-CORE SYSTEM WITH AN EXPANSIVE, ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
FORECAST SCENARIO. NAVGEM, EGRR, AND GFS ARE FASTER THAN THE
MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS IN ALONG-TRACK MOTION. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
HEDGED SLIGHTLY BEHIND CONSENSUS, TOWARDS THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION.
DUE TO INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 24, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
010000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND
020300Z.//
NNNN
010300Z POSITION NEAR 26.4S 177.5W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 519 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SYSTEM BEGINNING TO UNRAVEL WITH WARMING
CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A
282146Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATING WEAKENING, TIGHTLY
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
OF MODERATE (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE (27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A STRONG
POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL. HOWEVER, WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS, TC 16P WILL DRIVE INTO HIGH (30-40 KT) VWS AND COOLER SST (26
CELSIUS), PROMPTING THE START OF THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 4.0/4.5 (77-90 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND
4.5/4.5 (77-90 KNOTS) FROM KNES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STEERING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST. SOUTHEASTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 12 UNTIL THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO ROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND TURNS EASTWARD.
AFTER TAU 12, TC 16P WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36
INTO A COLD-CORE SYSTEM WITH AN EXPANSIVE, ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
FORECAST SCENARIO. NAVGEM, EGRR, AND GFS ARE FASTER THAN THE
MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS IN ALONG-TRACK MOTION. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
HEDGED SLIGHTLY BEHIND CONSENSUS, TOWARDS THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION.
DUE TO INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 24, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
010000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND
020300Z.//
NNNN
2117UTC
2042UTC
HWRF AT 18UTC: 83KT AT +0H
