00UTC
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
2019 FEB 28 0155UTC SOUTH PACIFIC
TC #POLA #16P
This system is currently analysed as a 85knots TC, CAT2 US.
2019 FEB 28 0155UTC SOUTH PACIFIC
TC #POLA #16P
This system is currently analysed as a 85knots TC, CAT2 US.
WARNING 9/JTWC
Click on the image to read the Remarks for the Warning 9 and view sat pics and charts .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 28, 2019:
Location: 22.2°S 178.1°W
Maximum Winds: 85 kt (160km/h)
Gusts: 105 kt ( 195km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 mb
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 22.6S 178.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS SUSTAINED CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A DEFINED EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A 272236Z SSMIS
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A MICROWAVE EYE AND THE EYE IN THE MSI
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS PLACED BETWEEN DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM KNES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) AND T5.5
(102 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND NFFN AS WELL AS A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 81
KNOTS AT 272135Z. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 16P WILL
MAINTAIN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW (5-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS) THROUGH TAU 12 BEFORE
ENTERING A REGION OF HIGHER VWS AND LOWER SST. TC 16P IS TRACKING
SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
ITS EAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH,
WEAKENING THE AFOREMENTIONED STR AND ALLOWING TC 16P TO TRANSITION
TO AN EASTWARD TRACK BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48. THE CYCLONE WILL
BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AT TAU 48 AND FULLY
TRANSITION TO A COLD-CORE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WITH AN EXPANSIVE
WIND FIELD, ACCELERATING EASTWARD, BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH SLIGHTLY LESS AGREEMENT BY
TAU 72. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
THROUGH TAU 48, AND LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 010300Z.//
NNNN
Click on the image to read the Remarks for the Warning 9 and view sat pics and charts .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 28, 2019:
Location: 22.2°S 178.1°W
Maximum Winds: 85 kt (160km/h)
Gusts: 105 kt ( 195km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 mb
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 22.6S 178.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS SUSTAINED CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A DEFINED EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A 272236Z SSMIS
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A MICROWAVE EYE AND THE EYE IN THE MSI
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS PLACED BETWEEN DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM KNES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) AND T5.5
(102 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND NFFN AS WELL AS A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 81
KNOTS AT 272135Z. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 16P WILL
MAINTAIN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW (5-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS) THROUGH TAU 12 BEFORE
ENTERING A REGION OF HIGHER VWS AND LOWER SST. TC 16P IS TRACKING
SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
ITS EAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH,
WEAKENING THE AFOREMENTIONED STR AND ALLOWING TC 16P TO TRANSITION
TO AN EASTWARD TRACK BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48. THE CYCLONE WILL
BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AT TAU 48 AND FULLY
TRANSITION TO A COLD-CORE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WITH AN EXPANSIVE
WIND FIELD, ACCELERATING EASTWARD, BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH SLIGHTLY LESS AGREEMENT BY
TAU 72. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
THROUGH TAU 48, AND LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 010300Z.//
NNNN
2138UTC
