0005UTC
Models show strong development once over the Gulf of Carpentaria in apprx 4 days.
Location: 10.7°S 146.7°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt (55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
WTPS21 PGTW 170130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92P)//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160121ZMAR2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.5S 147.0E TO 12.0S 143.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 170000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.7S 146.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.3S 149.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 146.7E, APPROXIMATELY 95
NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY A 162027Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE,
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING IN
FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH. A 162311Z OSCAT PASS SHOWS A SWATH OF 30KT
WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. 92P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92P WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND
INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS
SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 160130).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
180130Z.//
NNNN
Location: 10.7°S 146.7°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt (55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
WTPS21 PGTW 170130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92P)//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160121ZMAR2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.5S 147.0E TO 12.0S 143.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 170000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.7S 146.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.3S 149.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 146.7E, APPROXIMATELY 95
NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY A 162027Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE,
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING IN
FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH. A 162311Z OSCAT PASS SHOWS A SWATH OF 30KT
WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. 92P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92P WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND
INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS
SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 160130).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
180130Z.//
NNNN
TCFA/JTWC
TCFA/JTWC
0130UTC
