02W(MALAKAS) set to reach Typhoon CAT 3 by 72h//03W(MEGI) absorbed by 02W by 96h//Invest 96W and Subtropical 23P(FILI),10/03utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON TS 02W(MALAKAS) AND TS 03W(MEGI). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON BOTH SYSTEMS AND ON SUBTROPICAL TC 23P(FILI).

10/0250UTC.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 092136Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55KTS IS SET WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND REMAINS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE BUT IN LINE WITH MULTIPLE AGENCY FIXES LISTED BELOW. THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE REMAINS CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LLC WHICH HAS RAPIDLY MOVED TO THE NORTHWEST FROM THE PREVIOUS 6 HOURS. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST OFFSETTING THE MODERATE TO STRONG VWS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 02W MALAKAS CONTINUES ON A NORTHWEST TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). BY 48H, THE CYCLONE WILL SLOW SLIGHTLY AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE BINARY INTERACTION WITH (TS 03W MEGI) NOW APPEARS AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH OF 1000KM WITH A SLIGHT DISCREPANCY AS TO WHETHER TS MALAKAS WILL BEGIN ABSORBING THE ENERGY BEFORE IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS, OR JUST AFTER AT 72H. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO INDICATE A STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 90KTS/CAT 2 US BY 48H. SOME INDICATIONS OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OCCUR NEAR 60H AS TS MALAKAS BEGINS ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS. ONCE MALAKAS ROUNDS THE RIDGE IT WILL REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 100KTS/CAT 3 US AND THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD IWO TO. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES, WHERE IT WILL BEGIN EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE DYNAMIC CHANGES FROM THE COOL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND AN INCREASE OF VWS, DECAYING THE SYSTEMS INTENSITY TO 80KTS/CAT 1 US BY 120H.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A NARROW 175KM SPREAD OUT TO 72H AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREADS TO 500KM BY 120H. THE BINARY INTERACTION REMAINS A TOP CONCERN FOR THE TRACK AND OVERALL TIMING BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND A REGION OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LEYTE GULF. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI IMAGE AND MULTIPLE AGENCY FIX POSITIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40KTS IS BASED ON THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VWS, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SST. THE CYCLONE REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA, NEAR THE LEYTE GULF, WHERE IT IS EMBEDDED IN A SHALLOW TROUGH WITH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND A BELT OF WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 03W MEGI REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE WARM PHILIPPINE SEA AND BEGIN MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST BY 48H. CONGRUENTLY, THE PASSING TS 02W MALAKAS WILL BEGIN DRAWING THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM TS MEGI AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. THE DIRECT INTERACTION OF THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL WEAKEN TS MEGI AS IT STARTS THE INITIAL DISSIPATION PROCESS. BY 96H TS MEGI IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETELY ABSORBED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE CONTINUALLY INDICATING GREAT DISPARITY IN THE NEAR TAUS UP TO 36H. THEREAFTER, THE MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS TRACK THE VORTEX EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INDICATE DISSIPATION FOR THE SYSTEM AS IT UNDERGOES BINARY INTERACTION WITH THE LARGER TS 02W MALAKAS. GIVEN THE LARGE VARIABILITY IN THE FIRST 24-36HRS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.