02W(MALAKAS) forecast to reach Typhoon CAT 3 by 120h but Invest 94W might spoil the party//TC 23P(FILI): final warning//Invest 96W and Invest 90P, 08/03utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON TS 02W(MALIKAS). WARNING 17/FINAL WAS ISSUED ON TC 23P(FILI) AT 08/03UTC.3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON BOTH SYSTEMS.

08/0210UTC.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RELATIVELY ELONGATED AND DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION, WITH FLARING CONVECTION EXTENDING IN A LINEAR FASHION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OF THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CENTER. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ARE EVIDENT IN THE ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY, STREAMING IN TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHILE MUCH WEAKER EASTERLY FLOW IS SEEN WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. A 072331Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS CONFIRMED THE ELONGATED AND DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE STRONG, UP TO 40 KNOTS, WIND FIELD TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE SCATTEROMETER DATA, THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, AS THE BEST TRACK WAS PLACED IN THE APPROXIMATE CENTROID OF THE ELONGATED CIRCULATION, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS, WHEN IN FACT THERE MAY BE MULTIPLE VORTICITY CENTERS UNDER THE CONVECTION AS THE LATEST GFS AND HWRF MODEL FIELDS WOULD SUGGEST. WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED, IT IS SLOWLY INTENSIFYING, AS SHOWN IN THE SCATTEROMETER DATA, AS WELL AS A 072006Z SMAP PASS BOTH OF WHICH SHOWED BROAD SWATHS OF 40 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LLCC. AGENCY FIXES, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RJTD, ARE ALL AT T3.0 (45 KNOTS) BUT THE OBJECTIVE ADT AND SATCON ARE UNREALISTICALLY HIGH.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 94W INDUCES AN ALTERNATE FORECAST SCENARIO TO BE DISCUSSED BELOW. FORECAST DISCUSSION: AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TS MALAKAS IS STRUGGLING TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A SINGULAR AND DISCREET LOW LEVEL CENTER. GFS AND HWRF HAVE BEEN DEPICTING THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS, BUT THE RECENT SCATTEROMETER AND MOST RECENT ANIMATED MSI CONFIRM IT. HENCE IN THE NEAR-TERM, WHILE SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI), THIS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LESS LIKELY TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE TIME TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER BEFORE IT CAN INTENSIFY AT MORE THAN A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. THE FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36, BUT BY THIS POINT THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE DEVELOPED A MORE COMPACT CORE, AND THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION WILL INCREASE THEREAFTER, TO A PEAK OF 100 KNOTS BY TAU 120. IN TERMS OF TRACK, THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN, WHICH IS DOMINATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. OVER THE COURSE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THIS RIDGE WILL SLIDE FURTHER EAST, WHILE RIDGING TOWARDS THE EQUATOR, EFFECTIVELY REORIENTING THE RIDGE AXIS MORE MERIDIONAL AND ALLOWING TS 02W TO TRANSIT NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. WHILE THE SYNOPTIC LEVEL FORCING HAS NOT CHANGED, THE PRIMARY DETERMINANT IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT, OR NON-DEVELOPMENT, OF INVEST 94W, CURRENTLY LOCATED EAST OF MINDANAO. THE GFS HAS BEEN BULLISH ON DEVELOPING 94W FOR SEVERAL DAYS, WHILE ECMWF HAS IGNORED IT, THAT IS UNTIL NOW. WITH THE LATEST RUN, ECMWF HAS NOW JUMPED ON THE BANDWAGON, WITH DEVELOPMENT OF 94W INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHICH THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST, UNDERGOES BINARY INTERACTION AND FUJIWHARA WITH TS 02W, AND ULTIMATELY IS ABSORBED WITHIN TS MAKALAS. GFS HAS SHOWN A CONSISTENTLY SIMILAR SOLUTION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. WHILE THIS POSSIBILITY IS STILL CONSIDERED AS A RELATIVELY LOW PROBABILITY, WITH THE RECENT CHANGE IN THE ECMWF MODEL TO COME ON BOARD, THE POSSIBILITY IS INCREASING, LEADING TO AN ALTERNATE FORECAST SCENARIO, WHICH REFLECTS TC DEVELOPMENT FROM 94W WHICH WOULD PULL THE TRACK OF TS 02W FURTHER WEST, LINGERING NEAR 135E FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE RACING NORTHWARD AFTER 120H.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THROUGH 72H, THE BULK OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS, WHICH MAY BE JUMPING VORTICES WITHIN THE ELONGATED CIRCULATION, AS IT TRACKS THE SYSTEM DUE NORTH THEN NORTHWEST THROUGH 24H. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY PACKED, BUT AS PRECISION DOES NOT EQUAL ACCURACY, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 0/72H FORECAST DUE TO THE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND THE ELONGATED NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST, THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE, WITH THE GFS BITING OFF ON THE BINARY INTERACTION WITH 94W, TURNING THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST, LINGERING FOR 24 HOURS THEN SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD. THE ECMWF SHOWS A SIMILAR JOG TO THE WEST BY 120H, THOUGH TO A LESSER DEGREE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HOLD THE LINE ON THE STRAIGHT NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, THOUGH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN, GALWEM AND NAVGEM SHOW A SHARP RECURVE BY 120H, LEADING TO A NEARLY 1110KM SPREAD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. OVERALL THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, WHILE THE RI AIDS CONTINUE TO TRIGGER, THE EVIDENT DISORGANIZATION OF THE CORE MEANS THAT ANY NEAR-TERM RI IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY AND THESE AIDS ARE DISCARDED. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE SEEMS MORE LIKELY, WITH NEAR-TERM SLOW INTENSIFICATION FOLLOWED BY A MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 100 KNOTS/CAT 3 US BY 120H. THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE, EXCEPT HWRF AND COAMPS-TC, INDICATE RAPID WEAKENING AFTER 96H. THE JTWC LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH 48H THEN DEPARTS WELL ABOVE THE MEAN THEREAFTER. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW HOWEVER DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN TIMING OF CORE CONSOLIDATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BINARY INTERACTION AND MERGER WITH 94W, WHICH WOULD IMPACT A SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON THE ULTIMATE INTENSITY.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (FILI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 KM SOUTH OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITHIN 185KM. THE PERSISTENT WESTERLY SHEAR AND SMOTHERING EFFECTS OF DRY AIR ENCROACHING FROM THE WEST HAVE FINALLY KILLED THE SYSTEM. A 071836Z SMAP PASS, AS WELL AS A PARTIAL 072154Z ASCAT-B PASS INDICATED A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED WIND FIELD, WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 35 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA, IT WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY TRANSITION TO A SUBTROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST THEN TURN SOUTHWARD AND THERE REMAINS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME INTENSIFICATION, BACK TO A GALE-FORCE SUBTROPICAL STORM IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.