02W(MALAKAS) forecast to reach Typhoon CAT 1 within 48h,might interact with developing 94W later//Invests 96W, 90P and subtropical TC 23P,08/15utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON TS 02W(MALIKAS). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON 02W AND THE REMNANTS OF TC 23P(FILI).

1430UTC.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE SHEARED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO HIGH MID-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A 080910Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WITH A LINEAR BAND OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CDO OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS BROAD AND WEAKLY-DEFINED IN THE SSMIS COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE ALTHOUGH THERE IS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING AROUND AN ELONGATED CENTER JUST EAST OF THE LINEAR BAND. A 081214Z ASCAT-B IMAGE ALSO SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CDO, AND SHOWS AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH 35-40 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT IMAGE AND THE SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA, AND DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WARM SST AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT OFFSET BY HIGH MID- LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO SLOW DEVELOPMENT.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. ALTERNATE SCENARIO POSSIBLE (SEE BELOW). FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 02W CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO CONSOLIDATE AS REVEALED IN THE RECENT EIR IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY DESPITE THE GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION COULD LEAD TO RELOCATIONS AND SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST TRACK UNTIL THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BECOMES STRONGER AND BETTER DEFINED. TS 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH 72H. AFTER 72H, TS 02W WILL SLOW SLIGHTLY AND TURN NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT APPROACHES A BREAK IN THE STR POSITIONED SOUTH OF HONSHU. DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND PERSISTENT HIGH MID-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), TS 02W WILL INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH 36H BUT IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A STEEPER RATE AFTER 36H AS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CONSOLIDATES, VWS DECREASES AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES. THE PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS/CAT 3 US IS EXPECTED NEAR 96H THROUGH 120H.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH 60H IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 240KM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT 60H LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THERE COULD BE SOME SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS AS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES IN THE LOW-LEVELS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE VARIES CONSIDERABLY WITH COAMPS-TC (GFS AND NAVGEM VERSIONS) ON THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE AT 72H (55-65 KNOTS) AND HWRF AT 82 KNOTS AT 72H. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS POSITIONED HIGHER (90 KNOTS) THAN THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS (ICNW), WHICH HAS A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS AT 72H. AFTER 72H, MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH TWO DISTINCT TRACK SCENARIOS: FIRST IS THE SCENARIO CURRENTLY FAVORED BY JTWC, THE SLOW RECURVE NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. SECOND, IS THE ALTERNATE SCENARIO DEPICTED BY ECMWF, WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM MORE WESTWARD WHILE STRONGLY INTERACTING WITH, AND UNDERGOING FUJIWHARA INTERACTION WITH A DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE (INVEST 94W) NEAR THE PHILIPPINES. DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE EVOLVING SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 72-120 HOUR JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 128.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 126.1E , APPROXIMATELY 65 KM EAST OF THE VISAYAN ISLANDS, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND 072203Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE PHILIPPINES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY PRONOUNCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (05 TO 10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND HIGH (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GREATER CONCURRENCE BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING THE INTENSIFICATION AND POSITION OF 94W. RECENT MODEL RUNS PREDICT THAT THE INVEST WILL REACH TC STRENGTH AROUND 48H WHILE NAVGEM AND CMC STILL DOUBT INTENSIFICATION AND PLACE THE INVEST 5 DEGREES EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.