02W(MALAKAS) forecast to intensify markedly next 48h//03W(MEGI) over the Visayan Sea//Remnants of 23P(FILI), 11/03utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON TS 02W(MALAKAS) AND TS 03W(MEGI). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON BOTH SYSTEMS AND ON SUBTROPICAL TC 23P(FILI).

11/0320UTC.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS SPIRAL-BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH LARGE CONVECTIVE BANDS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A WELL-TIMED BULLSEYE PASS FROM AN 110006Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60KTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN MULTIPLE AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE TIGHTER WRAPPING AROUND THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS, STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SST OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS MALAKAS IS STILL TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION IN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE OUTFLOW FROM (TD 03W MEGI) WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON TS MALAKAS. THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN ROUND THE STR AXIS, AND RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. TS MALAKAS IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN FURTHER DURING THE TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100KTS/CAT 3 US BEFORE 72H. AFTERWARD, TS MALAKAS WILL ACCELERATE ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR AXIS AND GAIN A MORE PRONOUNCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. BY 96H, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. ONCE THERE, IT WILL BEGIN EXPERIENCING HIGHER VWS, AN INFLUX OF COOL DRY AIR, DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND BEGIN TO DECREASE INTENSITY TO 50KTS. SIMULTANEOUSLY AT 120H, THE SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT APPROACHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS VERY RAGGED CONVECTION MOVING BACK OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE VISAYAN SEA, NEAR THE COAST OF LEYTE ISLAND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTIPLE OBSERVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES AND THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25KTS IS HEDGED LOWER THAN MULTIPLE AGENCY FIXES AND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CEBU CITY, MAASIN, MASBATE, BORONGAN, AND CATARMAN. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS UNFAVORABLE, WITH STRONG VWS, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY THE WARM SST. TD 03W REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) IN THE PHILIPPINE ISLAND CHAIN DUE TO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD MEGI WILL CONTINUE TURNING CLOCKWISE AND THEN TRACK EAST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY TO 30KTS OVER THE WARM WATERS JUST BEFORE MOVING BACK OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF SAMAR BETWEEN 24H AND 36H. TD MEGI WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA AS (TS 02W MALAKAS) MOVES WITHIN 1000KM AND HAS A SLIGHT BINARY INTERACTION. THE REMNANTS OF TD 03W WILL ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT IS ABSORBED BY THE LARGER, STRONGER SYSTEM.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH MAINTAINING THE VORTEX OVER THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT 36HRS BEFORE EJECTING IT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD TS 02W. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A WIDESPREAD IN THE INITIAL 36-48HR TRAJECTORIES. BECAUSE OF THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.