REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 28.1S 175.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (POLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 644 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED WITH
THE REMNANT DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED SOUTHEASTWARD. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLC WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35KTS
FROM PGTW AND T3.0/45KTS AND REFLECTS THE RAPID DECAY. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE HAS ACCELERATED ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE OF THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER STRONG
(GREATER THAN 30KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. CONCURRENTLY, THE CYCLONE
HAS ENTERED THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES AND NOW UNDERGOING
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTIVE DECAY, THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO A STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN
EXPANDING WIND FIELD BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 20 FEET.//
NNNN
JMV File/JTWC
1619022500 123S1762W 25
1619022506 129S1761W 25
1619022512 134S1760W 30
1619022518 138S1759W 30
1619022521 144S1759W 30
1619022600 149S1758W 35
1619022606 159S1760W 35
1619022612 169S1762W 40
1619022618 182S1764W 45
1619022700 192S1770W 65
1619022706 198S1774W 75
1619022712 206S1779W 75
1619022718 213S1781W 80
1619022800 222S1781W 85
1619022806 233S1780W 95
1619022812 244S1782W 90
1619022818 252S1781W 85
1619030100 261S1781W 75
1619030106 272S1778W 65
1619030112 278S1773W 55
1619030118 281S1763W 40
NNNN
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
012100Z POSITION NEAR 28.1S 175.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (POLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 644 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED WITH
THE REMNANT DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED SOUTHEASTWARD. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLC WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35KTS
FROM PGTW AND T3.0/45KTS AND REFLECTS THE RAPID DECAY. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE HAS ACCELERATED ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE OF THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER STRONG
(GREATER THAN 30KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. CONCURRENTLY, THE CYCLONE
HAS ENTERED THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES AND NOW UNDERGOING
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTIVE DECAY, THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO A STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN
EXPANDING WIND FIELD BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 20 FEET.//
NNNN
JMV File/JTWC
1619022500 123S1762W 25
1619022506 129S1761W 25
1619022512 134S1760W 30
1619022518 138S1759W 30
1619022521 144S1759W 30
1619022600 149S1758W 35
1619022606 159S1760W 35
1619022612 169S1762W 40
1619022618 182S1764W 45
1619022700 192S1770W 65
1619022706 198S1774W 75
1619022712 206S1779W 75
1619022718 213S1781W 80
1619022800 222S1781W 85
1619022806 233S1780W 95
1619022812 244S1782W 90
1619022818 252S1781W 85
1619030100 261S1781W 75
1619030106 272S1778W 65
1619030112 278S1773W 55
1619030118 281S1763W 40
NNNN
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau